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Imagine what could happen if other critical sectors of the Nigerian economy such as education and health have access to this kind of lifeline support?The purpose of the above analogy is just to draw some attention to some of the financial cost of the ongoing banking crisis. A stitch in time they say saves nine. Now, just imagine the benefits that could have accrued to the entire Nigerian economy had the CBN correctly predicted the bank failures two (2) years prior to now. Perhaps there would have been no need for the Expanded Discount Window and no need for the 420 billion Naira bailout fund! Those funds could have been channeled to other critical needs of the economy.The traditional model of assessing the performance of financial institutions has been the CAMELS Rating. CAMELS is an acronym for Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market Risk. While the CAMELS Rating is an excellent measure, I believe it is time for the regulator to develop once and for all a reliable model for predicting bank failures in the country. This will enable the regulator closely and easily monitor the performance of the banks and take remedial actions long before things get out of hand.Because Nigeria has had ample cases of bank failures in the past, it will not be too difficult to come up with a model similar to Professor Altman's z-score. But adjustments have to be made for the unique nature of banking services, the Nigerian economy, the industry peculiarities and the way and manner in which the financial statements of the banks are presented. Banking thrives on sound liquidity management. This assertion itself can serve as the foundation for any form of analysis or modeling framework that can be developed for the industry.It is important to note that I am not proposing a wholesale adoption of the z-score model. A separate model can be developed for our own unique environment using basic principles that are similar to those used for the z-score model. I am aware that sometimes it is argued that bank financial statements are difficult to understand and that banks use a lot of off-balance sheet items. Regulation remains the best response to the above problems. There is need to simplify, streamline and standardize financial statement reporting. There is also need for sufficient disclosure of off-balance sheet items. That is why full disclosure and full provision for bad debts is a step in the right direction. Ultimately, the boys will be separated from the men.Last but not the least, a situation of Garbage In Garbage Out must be avoided. This is key as the financial statements (particularly the balance sheet and income statement) that will serve as source documents for the calculation of the financial ratios on which the analytical model will be based MUST show a true and fair view. The accuracy and integrity of the financial statements MUST not be in doubt. This again poses further challenges for regulation. However, I conclude that this moment and time is perhaps the best for addressing some of the major issues raised above.
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